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"When we long for life without difficulties, remind us that oaks grow strong in contrary winds and diamonds are made under pressure." ~Peter Marshall Technology companies tend to view the Latin American mobile market as a single block; this might be in part because of the similarities in key demographic and economic factors including language, GDP and mobile penetration as well as the presence of two large players -Telefonica and America Movil- that dominate the region. The Latin American mobile market, however, is incredibly complex. Each country shows remarkably different subscriber usage behavior patterns and adoption of technologies; this translates into different needs and consequently, different opportunities for each market. Opportunity Maps are particularly useful in analyzing and understanding these differences. The chart above shows three key factors: (x) Average Monthly SMS; (y) MOU - Minutes of Usage; and ARPU - Monthly Average Revenue per User (bubble size) for t...

"Out of suffering comes creativity. You cannot spell painting without pain." John Lithgow in Third Rock From the Sun Halfway through the first quarter of the year, the outlook for the economy continues to deteriorate with operators and technology vendors facing reduced CAPEX, delayed investments and slower growth rates. LATINFOCUS (January 2009) expects Latin America to grow at the slowest pace in seven years; industry analysts estimate wireless subscriber growth in 2009 to be between 5% (Yankee Group) and 8% (Moody's), down from double digit growth in previous years ( Reinhardt Krause , Investor's Business Daily). Moody's analyst Nymia Almeida ( Reinhardt Krause , Investor's Business Daily) states that operators like America Movil still expect a 10% subscriber growth but with mobile penetration reaching saturation in major markets and slower growth rates this year, the only way they can achieve this is via churn from other operators. What can operators do in...

With voice ARPU steadily declining and mobile penetration reaching 100% in major markets, operators in Latin America continue to explore different options for revenue generation services that will allow investments in 3G infrastructure to be recuperated. 3G technologies were widely deployed in Latin America during 2007 and 2008, but wireless Internet and data services are still in its infancy in the region; data represents on average less than 15% of total ARPU and SMS bring in most of data ARPU. In Latin America, LBS is not new but we had not seen any major breakthroughs until last week, when America Movil and Nokia announced a partnership to bring Nokia Maps Navigation to consumers in Latin America ( America Movil and Nokia Help Mobile Users in Latin America Navigate Their World , Feb 18, 2009). The other major announcement came a few days before the press release from America Movil. Ericsson announced a partnership with Networks in Motion to offer customers turn-by-turn directions ...

Check out this SlideShare Presentation: Voice Mail Strategy Chile View more presentations from Raul Castanon . (tags: voice mail )

"Measure what is measurable, and make measurable what is not so.” -Galileo Galilei The intersection of the mobile space and the Internet continues to be a challenge for mobile operators. Mobile advertising, for example, is getting a lot of attention in the mobile industry but it has yet to consolidate as a significant revenue generator (see Mobile Advertising - Learning to play by the rules ). Internet marketing and Web analytics have come a long way in the last five years, but there is still a long way to go in the mobile space. Interestingly, mobile operators are actually very good with metrics, when it comes to voice. They have precise indicators to evaluate network productivity, performance and utilization as well as detailed demographic and psychographic user data. However, when it comes to Web analytics, mobile operators have not even started exploring its potential. Even in the USA, operators lag behind other industries such as finance and retail. Other regions such as La...

"Nothing is more expensive than a missed opportunity." -H. Jackson Brown Jr. This is a follow up to my two previous posts where I discussed opportunities and my top five predictions for the Latin America mobile market in 2009. The global economic downturn has forced operators to take a second look at new investments for 2009; however, this can be a good opportunity to look at things differently. Operators can rethink their VAS strategy and Repackage, Reposition, and Reinvent services and adapt to succed in the new economic environment. What follows is a list of services that, based on my experience, have a higher probability for success in 2009-2010: Reinvent voice .... Operators will be watching CAPEX spending closely and looking for ways to reduce OPEX. In addition, voice will continue to be the greatest cash generator in the region through 2013; it therefore makes sense to think about services that will help them offer voice services as cost-effectively as possible. ... ...

"Profits are an opinion, cash is a fact." For my first post of the year, I will share my thoughts on what to expect for 2009, based on the economic outlook, industry trends and user behavior. So without further ado, here are my top five predictions for 2009 for the Latin America Mobile market: Growth will continue but at a slower rate than previously expected: Mr. José María Álvarez Pallete, General Manager of Telefónica Latinoamérica, stated last year that the region will continue to grow in subscribers and revenues, but given the economic crisis, it will be at a slower growth rate than previously expected. The 2008 economic downturn will very likely be the main factor affecting operator decisions. Mobile operators will be watching CAPEX spending closely and will be looking for ways to reduce OPEX spending in every way possible. They will be more interested in Value Added Services that can be deployed to the mass market, across a broad range of devices and that can be offe...

As the year comes to an end, it's a good idea to reflect on the past and learn from our experience, good or bad. With this in mind, I compiled a list of the good, the bad and the really bad news and analysis from the mobile industry in Latin America that I blogged about during 2008, with some additional comments and reflections. Enjoy! The good!!!! America Movil launches the iPhone - after much speculation and anticipation, America Movil formally announced in early May that they were selected to distribute the iPhone in Latin America. America Movil's VAS team moved quickly and successfully launched exactly one year after the iPhone was first launched in the USA by AT&T. Why is this GOOD? This was a complex deployment that was done with a very tight schedule. The successful launch of the iPhone in Latin America was possible thanks to a strong team; Corporate VAS in Mexico, together with local VAS Managers and Operations Managers in the region showed that they have wha...

Even before the economic meltdown, in the last three years operators operators worldwide were developing more aggressive business case guidelines for new and existing services. Operators such as Telefonica, Vodafone and Millicom today have imposed business case guidelines that are more strict than ever before. To comply, VAS managers have followed the strategy of evaluating subscribers and deprovisioning services from low usage segments. We have seen this happen over and over again with operators in Europe, Latin America and Asia. Deprovisioning subscribers from low usage segments looks good on paper because it makes it seem that operators are serving the same or even a larger subscriber base with lower CAPEX. The problem with this is that operators are playing with financial formulas instead of increasing revenues. In addition, many times operators do not provide an alternative service for these segments. While new models for commercial agreements that are not based on a per subscrib...

We recently posted about Millicom's success in Latin America, where it is positioned as a reliable operator with strong customer loyalty. The Latin American market continues to grow and Millicom is benefitting from this, but it has also managed to gain market share from the two giants in the region, America Movil and Telefonica Movistar. The question is how is Millicom doing this? Both heavyweights have consolidated their leadership in Latin America; they compete head to head in most of the region (America Movil operates in 16 countries, Telefonica Movistar in 13) and both surpassed the 100 million mark a couple of years ago. Both operators seem intent to compete by continually trying to differentiate themselves with new products and services. However, in most cases, it only takes a few months for the other to catch up. Most recently, both operators were ready to kill each other over the iPhone. America Movil got a headstart but in the end, Telefonica was able to mitigate any possi...

As mobile operators finish completion of their budgets for 2009 and approach the holiday season, vendors anxiously await what will be one of the toughest years since the telecom downturn from the late 90's/2000. An interesting insight into what to expect for 2009 comes from Marc Beuls, President and CEO of Millicom, who presented to investors at the Morgan Stanley 8th Annual Technology, Media and Telecoms Conference in Barcelona just a week ago. Mr Beuls’ presentation has been posted on Millicom’s website at www.millicom.com and includes updated information on expected capital expenditures, cashflow and margins (see press release here ). Millicom continues its impressive growth with outstanding results; it reports a 71% in Honduras from Q3 07, 39% in Guatemala and 29% in El Salvador. Millicom operates in Latin American markets that are still growing but has gained market share from its main competitors in Central America, America Movil and Telefonica Movistar. Millicom is now the ...

This is a follow up to my post from October regarding the iPhone launch in Latin America (see here ). The battle between America Movil and Telefonica Movistar was settled after Apple signed with Movistar; we expected this to happen since the official announcement from America Movil did not mention exclusivity. As we know now, Mexico will be the only country where only one operator will have exclusivity, at least until 2009. In its rush to launch the iPhone, Telefonica Movistar did not launch Visual Voice Mail, unlike Claro / America Movil, who did include Visual Voice Mail, except for Comcel Colombia. How relevant can this be to the end user and to the overall strategy for both America Movil and Telefonica Movistar? As we have pointed out here before, the big risk for the iPhone in Latin America is to be just passing fad. Operators have the opportunity to make a significant impact with this device in terms of data usage, which so far has not been significant in the region (except maybe...

This is a follow up to our last post from June! We took a long break but are back with more news and analaysis. It has been more than a month since the iPhone was first launched in Latin America, after much anticipation and a fierce battle between Telefonica and America Movil (see links here and here ). Now we hear that other major operators, as we anticipated here , are preparing for a possible iPhone launch, including TIM Brazil and Telecom Personal Argnetina. It is still early to evaluate results since the first launch (Telcel Mexico in July, Argentina and Chile in August) was only a few months ago, but it seems the rush from Telefonica Movistar to sell the iPhone might spoil the market. Moe on this in our next post ....

Yesterday Telefonica confirmed it finally reached an agreement with Apple to distribute the iPhone in 16 countries, including its operations in all of Latin America except for Mexico. This confirms the rumors that America Movil did not have exclusive rights, and now the iPhone will be available in several countries by two operators. Italy was the first country to have this type of agreement. Telefonica already sells the phone in the UK and Ireland through its O2 unit, where it has exclusive distribution rights. Now, it will add the Czech Republic, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. Out of these countries, only Venezuela was not included in the America Movil agreement since it has no presence in that country. In Venezuela, Telefonica is the largest operator. Note by Reuters and other sources.

From Reuters, a little bit more information though basically the same we reported earlier today: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN0720230520080507 America Movil to sell iPhone across Latin America By Chris Aspin MEXICO CITY, May 7 (Reuters) - America Movil (AMXL.MX: Quote , Profile , Research ) said on Wednesday it would sell Apple Inc's (AAPL.O: Quote , Profile , Research ) iPhone across Latin America this year, a deal that could extend its lead in the region over Telefonica (TEF.MC: Quote , Profile , Research ). Mexico-based America Movil, which operates in 16 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean as well as the United States, did not disclose financial details. It did not say if it was an exclusive accord.

News sources in Brazil today confirm that Mexican Telephony group America Movil officially announced that they were selected to distribute the iPhone in Latin America, including Brazil. The news does not provide a launch date but confirms that the iPhone will be available in Latin America in 2008 ( iPhone should arrive to Brazil in 2008 , May 7 2008).

Big news from several sources including Cellular News : In a very short statement, Vodafone announced that it has secured an agreement to launch Apple's iPhone in ten countries. "Later this year, Vodafone customers in Australia , the Czech Republic , Egypt , Greece , Italy , India , Portugal , New Zealand , South Africa and Turkey will be able to purchase the iPhone for use on the Vodafone network." Interestingly, TIM Italia also announced that they will offer the iPhone, making that country the first to offer the handset with multiple operators. We are still waiting for the official announcement regarding Latin America. With the Vodafone agreement in multiple countries, which apparently Apple was hesitant to do, we can now expect something similar from America Movil and Telcel. America Movil has 16 operations in the region including the largest operator in Latin America, Telcel Mexico. Neither TIM, Vodafone or the last announcement before these two, Rogers Canada, have g...

With the leak to El Universal informing us that Telcel will launch the iPhone later this year, we can expect intense competition for the iPhone in the rest of the region. It was clear that Apple was not going to favor a global operator over another one. However, it is unlikely that neither Telefonica nor America Movil were willing to accept this condition, so we can probably expect now that the rest of the America Movil operations will be rushing to prepare for the iPhone launch, beginning with the largest markets: Brazil, Argentina and Colombia. Given this scenario, the other big players in the region, Vivo, Tim Brazil, Personal Argentina will have to come up with a strategy to counter the iPhone hype. This is a good opportunity for operators to revamp their messaging and data strategies. So far, the intense competition between operators in the region has consisted mainly of trying to outdo each other with the end result being a very standard offering, where subscribers cannot really...

From Mexican newspaper EL UNIVERSAL ( link ), and also reported by Cellular News ( link ), Telcel has finalized negotiations to launch the iPhone in Mexico. Interestingly, this comes the same week when news sources reported that Telefonica was closing an agreement with Apple for iPhone exclusivity in Latin America. As we reported here before, launching the iPhone with Telcel should be a no brainer, as it is the largest operator in Latin America, with almost 50M subscribers. It will be interesting to see what happens in Brazil and Argentina, who are very likely next in line for the launch of this groundbreaking handset.

From adnmundo.com (link here ) and tusbuscadores.com (link here ) we learn that apparently Telefonica is moving to close negotiations for a regional agreement to launch the iPhone in Latin America. We had mentioned here previously that America Movil and Telefonica were both after the distribution and Apple was negotiating on a per country per operator basis. Apparently this may have changed if the rumors that Apple will join forces with Telefonica are true. We had also mentioned that negotiations with America Movil were not going to be easy and that Apple's conditions, which include revenue share on data revenues, were very likely going to be unacceptable to America Movil. America Movil's leadership in Latin America is precisely what makes negotiations with them extremely difficult and for sure Telefonica will jump at the chance of winning this deal. Even though they have a similar number of subscribers in the region (both topped 100M in the last couple of years), America Mov...