LATAM Telecom

"Profits are an opinion, cash is a fact." For my first post of the year, I will share my thoughts on what to expect for 2009, based on the economic outlook, industry trends and user behavior. So without further ado, here are my top five predictions for 2009 for the Latin America Mobile market: Growth will continue but at a slower rate than previously expected: Mr. José María Álvarez Pallete, General Manager of Telefónica Latinoamérica, stated last year that the region will continue to grow in subscribers and revenues, but given the economic crisis, it will be at a slower growth rate than previously expected. The 2008 economic downturn will very likely be the main factor affecting operator decisions. Mobile operators will be watching CAPEX spending closely and will be looking for ways to reduce OPEX spending in every way possible. They will be more interested in Value Added Services that can be deployed to the mass market, across a broad range of devices and that can be offe...

The current world recession is leading businesses and consumers to curtail spending, which is expected to affect growth and revenues during 2009. Every day we hear about how operators are preparing to face this economic downturn with layoffs and by reducing CAPEX and OPEX; just last week, AT&T announced plans to cut 4% of its work force ( Cellular News ); Sprint Nextel is also expected to announce job cuts in 2009 ( Cellular News ). In Latin America, Millicom recently announced that 2009 CAPEX will be “substantially lower” than in 2008 and Telefonica stated last week that the region will continue to grow, but at a slower rate than previously expected. Despite the current economic downturn, there are opportunities operators have to introduce new services with minimal CAPEX. By analyzing end user behavior, traditional services such as Voice Mail, SMS and MMS can be repackaged and launched as new services, leveraging existing VAS infrastructure and reducing CAPEX normally required f...

We recently posted our thoughts on remarks made by Marc Beuls, President and CEO of Millicom, at the Morgan Stanley 8th Annual Technology, Media and Telecoms Conference in Barcelona. Even though Millicom continues its impressive growth in Latin America, Mr. Beuls made it clear that that CAPEX for 2009 will be “substantially lower” than in 2008. It comes as no surprise that other major players in the region will follow a similar strategy in 2009. Mr. José María Álvarez Pallete, General Manager of Telefónica Latinoamérica, stated last week at CEDE (V Congreso de la Confederación Española de Directivos y Ejecutivos) that the region will continue growing in subscribers and revenues (source Telesemana ), but he expects a slowdown in 2009, given the economic crisis. Mr. Álvarez Pallete, however, made it clear that this won't be a dramatic slowdown but rather a slower growth rate than previously expected and that Latin America is the area where the company expects to grow in the coming y...

As mobile operators finish completion of their budgets for 2009 and approach the holiday season, vendors anxiously await what will be one of the toughest years since the telecom downturn from the late 90's/2000. An interesting insight into what to expect for 2009 comes from Marc Beuls, President and CEO of Millicom, who presented to investors at the Morgan Stanley 8th Annual Technology, Media and Telecoms Conference in Barcelona just a week ago. Mr Beuls’ presentation has been posted on Millicom’s website at www.millicom.com and includes updated information on expected capital expenditures, cashflow and margins (see press release here ). Millicom continues its impressive growth with outstanding results; it reports a 71% in Honduras from Q3 07, 39% in Guatemala and 29% in El Salvador. Millicom operates in Latin American markets that are still growing but has gained market share from its main competitors in Central America, America Movil and Telefonica Movistar. Millicom is now the ...