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IDC predicts worldwide mobile phone shipments will fall 8.3% in 2009 ( Cellular News ). Q4 08 shipments fell 11.6%, marking the first time the holiday quarter has not recorded double digit growth in seven years. IDC also scaled back the outlook for smartphones as a result of the industry's changing dynamics, reducing from previously stated 8.7% to 3.4% growth. It is expected, however, that in the coming years the industry will migrate toward the converged device segment and this segment will maintain positive growth in 2009. The explosive success of Apple's iPhone and the App Store have significantly affected demand for smartphones and are defining new industry trends, with other companies including Nokia, Verizon, RIM, Microsoft launching their own mobile application stores this year. A March ChangeWave survey of 4,292 cell phone owners confirmed a shift to smartphones, with Apple and RIM in a close race for market leadership while their competitors continue to suffer the eff...

"Live a balanced life - learn some and think some and draw and paint and sing and dance and play and work every day some." - Robert Fulghum The market for mobile applications has changed significantly in the last four years, when I first started working with these applications. Four years does not sound like a long time but in this industry it means I have lived through several generations of devices and have seen some applications take off and many others fail. This year, analysts expect mobile applications to really take off; it is very exciting to see the industry reach this point, so I thought I'd share my experience and what I've learned in the process. Back then, Comverse was working on developing client applications that used new device capabilities to enhance network based services. These services included Call Completion, Mobile Instant Messaging, Address Book Backup, Mobile Email and Visual Voice Mail; each of them had different technical and commercial issu...

Check out this SlideShare Presentation: Voice Mail Strategy Chile View more presentations from Raul Castanon . (tags: voice mail )

As the year comes to an end, it's a good idea to reflect on the past and learn from our experience, good or bad. With this in mind, I compiled a list of the good, the bad and the really bad news and analysis from the mobile industry in Latin America that I blogged about during 2008, with some additional comments and reflections. Enjoy! The good!!!! America Movil launches the iPhone - after much speculation and anticipation, America Movil formally announced in early May that they were selected to distribute the iPhone in Latin America. America Movil's VAS team moved quickly and successfully launched exactly one year after the iPhone was first launched in the USA by AT&T. Why is this GOOD? This was a complex deployment that was done with a very tight schedule. The successful launch of the iPhone in Latin America was possible thanks to a strong team; Corporate VAS in Mexico, together with local VAS Managers and Operations Managers in the region showed that they have wha...

Rob Pegoraro, blogger and author of Fast Forward, the Washington's Post Personal Technology column, wrote yesterday about the new BlackBerry models (see BlackBerrys Again Get Sleeker but Can't Challenge iPhone ). I like Pegoraro's analysis on the new devices, it is very detailed and comprehensive, however his comparison to the iPhone, misses the point entirely. I have written extensively about how the iPhone is breaking new ground and challenging traditional handset vendors and operators to rethink their strategy. A quick look at how big players have responded since the iPhone was shown to the world at MacWorld 2007 is proof enough: Nokia recently unveiled its flagship phone for 2009, the N97, a few days ago and of course, RIM's new devices include touch screen devices that do mimic the iPhone user interface. Experience however, has shown that the BlackBerry VS iPhone challenge exists mostly in the minds of analysts, not in the marketplace. BlackBerry has positioned it...

A quick look at how the handset industry has changed after the iPhone was first introduced at Macworld 2007, confirms that visual interfaces are becoming a de facto standard for mobile devices: Just a few months after the iPhone launch by AT&T, Verizon launched the Voyager, made by LG. In early 2008, Sprint announced at CTIA the launch of the Samsung Instinct. More recently, just a few weeks ago, Research in Motion introduced the first touch screen Blackberry. Finally, Nokia, introduced its flagship phone for 2009, the N97, a few days ago. These are just a few of the many example of new touch screen devices by major handset manufacturers. At first instance it might seem like iPhone clones are flooding the market, but I strongly believe they are more than that; they are part of a growing trend that focuses on user experience. While it can be argued that Apple's iPhone did not actually create these innovations, some of which had been around for several years before its release, ...

Voice Mail and SMS have been in a mature stage for several years now; growth in most markets has slowed down and until recently, they kept the same form and functionality they had since they were first introduced years ago. Both services, however, remain the bread and butter of VAS services. In most markets (the USA being a notable exception) Voice Mail is the largest VAS contributor to revenue for mobile operators; SMS in some cases accounts for up to 90% of data revenue. This alone justifies paying attention to recent developments that are breathing new life into these two services by dramatically improving the user experience with visual interfaces. The best example of this is the iPhone, which introduced to the market visual applications for both services. Visual Voice Mail had been around for several years, but it was not until the iPhone was introduced that it got the attention of mobile operators. While it can be argued that the iPhone reflects a shift in users’ expectations as ...

Following an earlier post (see here ) about the potential VISUAL VOICE MAIL for iPhone has to impact subscriber data usage, I will be posting excerpts of an article I wrote for Convergencia Latina to expand on this topic. After more than one year of its launch, the iPhone has shown that traditional services such as voicemail and text messaging can greatly benefit from the use of visual interfaces that improve the user experience [1] . Acording to M:Metrics, the iPhone is already the most popular device for accessing news and information on the mobile Web [2] : 85 percent of iPhone users browse the mobile Web 30.9 percent of iPhone owners watched mobile TV or video, versus a 4.6 market average, and more than double the rate for all smartphone users. Usage of social networking is also popular among iPhone users: 49.7 percent accessed a social networking site in January, nearly twelve times the market average. Improving the user experience can increase voicemail usage, which should reflec...

This is a follow up to my post from October regarding the iPhone launch in Latin America (see here ). The battle between America Movil and Telefonica Movistar was settled after Apple signed with Movistar; we expected this to happen since the official announcement from America Movil did not mention exclusivity. As we know now, Mexico will be the only country where only one operator will have exclusivity, at least until 2009. In its rush to launch the iPhone, Telefonica Movistar did not launch Visual Voice Mail, unlike Claro / America Movil, who did include Visual Voice Mail, except for Comcel Colombia. How relevant can this be to the end user and to the overall strategy for both America Movil and Telefonica Movistar? As we have pointed out here before, the big risk for the iPhone in Latin America is to be just passing fad. Operators have the opportunity to make a significant impact with this device in terms of data usage, which so far has not been significant in the region (except maybe...

This is a follow up to our last post from June! We took a long break but are back with more news and analaysis. It has been more than a month since the iPhone was first launched in Latin America, after much anticipation and a fierce battle between Telefonica and America Movil (see links here and here ). Now we hear that other major operators, as we anticipated here , are preparing for a possible iPhone launch, including TIM Brazil and Telecom Personal Argnetina. It is still early to evaluate results since the first launch (Telcel Mexico in July, Argentina and Chile in August) was only a few months ago, but it seems the rush from Telefonica Movistar to sell the iPhone might spoil the market. Moe on this in our next post ....

Yesterday Telefonica confirmed it finally reached an agreement with Apple to distribute the iPhone in 16 countries, including its operations in all of Latin America except for Mexico. This confirms the rumors that America Movil did not have exclusive rights, and now the iPhone will be available in several countries by two operators. Italy was the first country to have this type of agreement. Telefonica already sells the phone in the UK and Ireland through its O2 unit, where it has exclusive distribution rights. Now, it will add the Czech Republic, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. Out of these countries, only Venezuela was not included in the America Movil agreement since it has no presence in that country. In Venezuela, Telefonica is the largest operator. Note by Reuters and other sources.

From Reuters, a little bit more information though basically the same we reported earlier today: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN0720230520080507 America Movil to sell iPhone across Latin America By Chris Aspin MEXICO CITY, May 7 (Reuters) - America Movil (AMXL.MX: Quote , Profile , Research ) said on Wednesday it would sell Apple Inc's (AAPL.O: Quote , Profile , Research ) iPhone across Latin America this year, a deal that could extend its lead in the region over Telefonica (TEF.MC: Quote , Profile , Research ). Mexico-based America Movil, which operates in 16 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean as well as the United States, did not disclose financial details. It did not say if it was an exclusive accord.

News sources in Brazil today confirm that Mexican Telephony group America Movil officially announced that they were selected to distribute the iPhone in Latin America, including Brazil. The news does not provide a launch date but confirms that the iPhone will be available in Latin America in 2008 ( iPhone should arrive to Brazil in 2008 , May 7 2008).

Big news from several sources including Cellular News : In a very short statement, Vodafone announced that it has secured an agreement to launch Apple's iPhone in ten countries. "Later this year, Vodafone customers in Australia , the Czech Republic , Egypt , Greece , Italy , India , Portugal , New Zealand , South Africa and Turkey will be able to purchase the iPhone for use on the Vodafone network." Interestingly, TIM Italia also announced that they will offer the iPhone, making that country the first to offer the handset with multiple operators. We are still waiting for the official announcement regarding Latin America. With the Vodafone agreement in multiple countries, which apparently Apple was hesitant to do, we can now expect something similar from America Movil and Telcel. America Movil has 16 operations in the region including the largest operator in Latin America, Telcel Mexico. Neither TIM, Vodafone or the last announcement before these two, Rogers Canada, have g...

It has been almost a year since the launch of the iPhone in the USA and only a few months since its introduction to the European maret. In this short period of time we have seen AT&T and Apple play with the pricing of the handset. Pricing for the service itself has not changed except for an additional package not offered in the beginning. In contrast, the European market sales of the device have not lived to expectations which shouldn't be surprising considering the price of the handset. The US and European markets offer interesting lessons for pricing the iPhone in Latin America: Both Apple and AT&T claim that the iPhone is selling in the U.S. up to expectations but overseas is a different matter . Everything seems to indicate the price is too high for the European market. Latin America is a low ARPU region but end users do not hesitate to buy high end devices. However, pricing the handset higher than a laptop is probably a big mistake. The number of users who are willing...

This week we reported on the strong rumors surruounding the launch of a 3G version of the iPhone. Wall Street Journal tech columnist Walt Mossberg was quoted by several sources stating that an iPhone capable of connecting to faster, "3G" mobile networks is coming "in 60 days." Just yesterday, I found a retraction from Mr. Mossberg in the Thursday edition of FierceWireless newsletter. The whole incident is hysterically funny with bloggers like Peter Kafka from the Silicon Alley Insider using the following headline: Mossberg: I Have No Idea When 3G iPhone Is Coming, And I Don't Care. However, Mossberg's crappy attitude and immediate disclaimer say more about the whole situation than his actual statements. Reading between the lines and knowing how Apple reacts when they believe their trade secrets are leaked, it coudn't surpise me that Mr. Mossberg had received a cease and desist or something to that effect from Apple's lawyers. We still believe the 3...

From Yahoo! News ( link ) we hear that Apple is expected to launch a high-speed wireless version of iPhone in the second quarter and produce as many as 8 million of the devices in the third quarter, according to Bank of America. "Our latest channel checks point to a significant production build of a 3G iPhone beginning in the month of June after an initial small build in May," said Bank of America analyst Scott Craig. As usual, no word from Apple.

With the leak to El Universal informing us that Telcel will launch the iPhone later this year, we can expect intense competition for the iPhone in the rest of the region. It was clear that Apple was not going to favor a global operator over another one. However, it is unlikely that neither Telefonica nor America Movil were willing to accept this condition, so we can probably expect now that the rest of the America Movil operations will be rushing to prepare for the iPhone launch, beginning with the largest markets: Brazil, Argentina and Colombia. Given this scenario, the other big players in the region, Vivo, Tim Brazil, Personal Argentina will have to come up with a strategy to counter the iPhone hype. This is a good opportunity for operators to revamp their messaging and data strategies. So far, the intense competition between operators in the region has consisted mainly of trying to outdo each other with the end result being a very standard offering, where subscribers cannot really...

From Mexican newspaper EL UNIVERSAL ( link ), and also reported by Cellular News ( link ), Telcel has finalized negotiations to launch the iPhone in Mexico. Interestingly, this comes the same week when news sources reported that Telefonica was closing an agreement with Apple for iPhone exclusivity in Latin America. As we reported here before, launching the iPhone with Telcel should be a no brainer, as it is the largest operator in Latin America, with almost 50M subscribers. It will be interesting to see what happens in Brazil and Argentina, who are very likely next in line for the launch of this groundbreaking handset.

From adnmundo.com (link here ) and tusbuscadores.com (link here ) we learn that apparently Telefonica is moving to close negotiations for a regional agreement to launch the iPhone in Latin America. We had mentioned here previously that America Movil and Telefonica were both after the distribution and Apple was negotiating on a per country per operator basis. Apparently this may have changed if the rumors that Apple will join forces with Telefonica are true. We had also mentioned that negotiations with America Movil were not going to be easy and that Apple's conditions, which include revenue share on data revenues, were very likely going to be unacceptable to America Movil. America Movil's leadership in Latin America is precisely what makes negotiations with them extremely difficult and for sure Telefonica will jump at the chance of winning this deal. Even though they have a similar number of subscribers in the region (both topped 100M in the last couple of years), America Mov...